Monday, January 07, 2008

The Smell of Fear


Hillary Clinton has it, so does Mitt Romney. Both presidential nomination heavyweights are reeling and facing a further pummelling in tomorrow's New Hampshire primaries.

Clinton, like Romney, is now all about "change" and questing to win the youth and independent vote. The latest debates have shown an angry, defensive Clinton, seemingly indignant that an upstart like Obama should be keeping her from her long-assumed anointment.

Hillary has ample reason to fear Obama if only because her position is so precipitous. Clinton is expected to be the big leader. For her to be in a statistical tie with John Edwards puts her in a far worse position than him. For Edwards it's staying relevant and in the competition, for her it's failure.

It was easy to dismiss the Iowa caucuses as a fluke but New Hampshire, the east, will hang around Hillary's neck for the rest of the campaign and the latest polls show Obama, not Clinton, with a commanding lead going into tomorrow's vote.

Obama has baggage, no question about that, but it is Hillary Clinton who is deeply disliked by America's voting public. It is Hillary who loses in head to head contests with each Republican candidate. She is the candidate who fully half of the American electorate says they will never, ever, under no circumstances support. The problem for Hillary is that every young voter, every independent, ever woman voter that Obama sways to his camp only adds to that 50% curse she carried into this campaign.

Images are being made this month in the early primaries but falling behind, getting mired now is especially critical given that Super Tuesday falls on February 5th, the day on which 22 state primaries, including New York and California, will be held.

If Hillary Clinton can't stage a decisive comeback over the next few weeks, she's finished. She knows it. You can smell the fear.

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